What type of interview is the best predictor of a future performance?

Would you agree that the best interview questions would be the ones that, like a fortune teller, could help you look into your crystal ball and predict a candidate's future work performance?  

Well, you could try to find a good fortune teller and add her to the interview team. Or  there IS an even better way to predict the future: use Competency and Behavioral-Based Interview Questions!

Definition of Competency & Behavioral-Based Interview Questions:

A method of using situational questions to elicit a response from a candidate that will describe the candidate’s past behaviors and actions in a specific situation or circumstance.

The best interview questions are based upon:  1) the competencies and behaviors required for success in the job, and that ask 2) the candidate to share detailed examples of their expertise, in each area.

Past behavior is one of the best predictors of future performance.


Competency and Behavioral-Based Interview Questions are the best interview questions to ask because:
“Lip Service Lies, Past Behaviors Don’t.”

The Best Interview Questions in Three Steps...
(Exactly How to Create Competency/Behavioral Questions...)

Step 1: Pick the competencies, personal skills and
behaviors crucial for success in the job.

  • For example: If you have an open Accountant position, after reviewing the eight types of work behaviors listed in this Hiring Good Employees article, you probably would have pick Organized Workplace as a key behavior needed for success as an Accountant.

Definition for Organized Workplace:  The job's success depends on systems and procedures; its successful performance is tied to careful organization of activities, tasks and projects that require accuracy.

Record keeping and planning are essential components of the job.

 Step 2: Develop interview questions for each key job area
using opening statements that ask for examples. Such as:

  • “Tell me about a situation where you...”
  • “Give me a specific example of a time where you had to..."
  • “How well did you handle it when...”
  • "Tell me about..."
  • Sample Accountant Best Interview Questions Using the Competency "Organized Workplace"
  • "Tell me about specific situations where you implemented procedures and systems. What worked? What didn't?"
  • "How important is record-keeping is to you. What system do you use?"
  • "Tell me about how you how you analyze data."
  • "Give me a specific example of a time where you were required to research data to make a decision. What process did you use? What worked? What didn't?"

Step 3: Press for specifics and listen aggressively.

  • If someone is strong in an competency area they will be able to provide solid and clear examples of work or situation from the past that demonstrate their expertise in that area.
  • During the interview take note of any areas that are answered with vague examples and press for more specifics.
  • Pay close attention to, and follow up on, ANY and ALL houghts or feelings of concern you have about the candidate. (This is VERY important...if the examples your candidate provides are vague, you could have problem - DO NOT skip over, move through or ignore your concerns or intuition!)

Startling Statistics...

Almost half of newly hired employees will fail within 18 months. In a Human Resource study of 312 companies that had collectively hired more than 200,000 people. 46% failed in the first year and a half, and only 19% had unequivocal success.

The study revealed what most interfered with the new employee's success:

  • 26% couldn't accept feedback
  • 23% were unable to understand and manage emotions
  • 17% lacked the motivation to excel
  • 15% had the wrong temperament for the job
  • 11% lacked the necessary technical skills

As surprising as these numbers are, even more surprising is that 82% of hiring managers had a sense that the employee wouldn't work out!!

They saw subtle signs of areas that could be potential problems during the interview. But they ignored the signs because they were either too focused on other issues, were too pressed for time, or they lacked confidence in interpreting them.

Don't let this be you! Be sure to use ALL Three Best Interview Questions Steps.

Pick the best interview questions by tying what you ask directly to what the job needs and then press the candidate for specific examples of past performance.

Be sure to pay close attention and listen aggressively and to follow up on any and all vague answers and concerns.

Following these steps will help you get a glimpse of your future with this person. It's kind of like having your very own Fortune Teller!


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It’s the interaction every candidate dreads: the job interview. They have snuck away from their current position for the day, dressed to impress and sat in a conference room doing their best to please one or several people who hold the power to hire them. They have made it this far, so you must be interested enough to meet them in person. In this period of time, the game begins. You ask the tough questions to weed out those that wouldn’t be a good hire.

But the thing is, you are not good at interviewing candidates. No, this isn’t hypothetical. I’m talking about you. Discover how the future of hiring is changing thanks to prescriptive analytics!

The hard truth

The truth is no one is good at conducting job interviews. According to a study used in Google’s Senior Vice President of People Operations Laszlo Bock’s book, “Work Rules!”, the judgments made within the first 10 seconds of a job interview could predict the outcome of the interview.

In a LinkedIn post by the author, Bock says, “Most interviews are a waste of time because 99.4% of the time is spent trying to confirm whatever impression the interviewer formed in the first 10 seconds.” He explains that interviewers do this by asking questions like, “Can you tell me about yourself?” “What is your greatest weakness?” and “What is your greatest strength?”

In other words, most of what we think of as “interviewing” is actually “the pursuit of confirmation bias.” And as we know, your subconscious biases do not result in dynamic, quality teams.

Employers often use unstructured interviews in an attempt to get to know candidates on a personal level. Research has been done showing the problem with interviews is worse than simply being irrelevant. They can even be harmful and can undercut the impact of more valuable information about the candidate. People tend to be overconfident in their ability to “just know” if a candidate is up to par. People are often wildly overconfident in their ability to judge how well a candidate would do in their open position from a short meeting. Plus, even if you choose what seems like a knock-out candidate, how do you know they will accept your offer or if they will stick around?

Failing alternatives

So, what about references? Previous positions are sure to give you a glimpse into how well a candidate will fit into your business, right? Frankly, no. 39% of recruitment managers believe reference checking in its current format is a formality which serves little purpose. Many corporate policies prohibit any conversation beyond confirming basic information such as the name of the employee and their dates of employment.

And that is wholly inadequate information when what you need is deep insight as to whether a candidate you are considering hiring is a high or low performer. Plus, even if their previous employer can give you the insight you’re looking for, not every position produces easily identifiable data which employers can use to judge candidates.

Enter prescriptive and predictive analytics

More than 50% of voluntary turnover happens within a year of the new hire’s start date and experts estimate 80% of employee turnover is due to bad hiring decisions. Even with the best efforts, companies are failing to accurately assess talent in unstructured interviews. But, the world of HR tech is changing and with that change comes more efficiency.

Prescriptive analytics uses data, statistical algorithms and machine learning to find patterns, which will lead to better hiring decisions. These patterns are used to figure out the likelihood of events occurring in the future.

But what does this mean for you? Data-backed predictions alone are interesting, but prescriptive statistics are what will completely change your hiring processes. Being able to predict if a candidate is a good fit for your business is just the beginning. With prescriptive data, you will also have insight into the likelihood of them accepting an offer and staying with the company long enough to have a strong, positive impact on the team.

Come to terms with the fact that you are not a good interviewer. It’s okay, no one is! With this breakthrough in HR technology, you can ditch the old-fashioned unstructured interview and get the crucial information you need in order to evaluate candidates in a fraction of the time.

This article was originally published on the Oleeo Blog by Charles Hipps.

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