What is qualitative risk assessment

Qualitative risk analysis is a technique used to quantify risk associated with a particular hazard. Risk assessment is used for uncertain events that could have many outcomes and for which there could be significant consequences. Risk is a function of probability of an event (a particular hazard occurring) and the consequences given the event occurs. Probability refers to the likelihood that a hazard will occur. In a qualitative assessment, probability and consequence are not numerically estimated, but are evaluated verbally using qualifiers like high likelihood, low likelihood, etc. Qualitative assessments are good for screening level assessments when comparing/screening multiple alternatives or for when sufficient data is not available to support numerical probability or consequence estimates. Once numbers are inserted into the analysis (either by quantifying the likelihood of a hazard or quantifying the consequences) the analysis transitions to a semi-quantitative or quantitative risk assessment.

Qualitative techniques

There are several techniques when performing qualitative risk analysis to determine the probability and impact of risks, including the following:

• Brainstorming, interviewing, Delphi technique
• Historical data
• Strength, weakness, opportunity, and threats analysis (SWOT analysis)
• Risk rating scales

Developing rating scales

Assigning probability and impacts to risks is a subjective exercise. Some of this subjectivity can be eliminated by developing rating scales that are agreed upon by the sponsor, project manager, and key team members. Some organizations, particularly those that have project management offices responsible for overseeing all projects, have rating scales already developed.[1]

External links

• Current Intelligence Bulletin 69: NIOSH Practices in Occupational Risk Assessment. National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), USA.

References

1. ^ Kim Heldman, PMP, Project Manager's Spotlight on Risk Management,p125,126

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Introduction

Qualitative risk assessment is one approach to measuring risk. It involves using descriptive or numerical ranking scales to classify the potential consequences and likelihoods of each risk.

Alternative measurement approaches are semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment.

Examples

One example of a qualitative risk assessment tool is a risk assessment matrix, which defines rating scales for the likelihood and impact of each identified risk, then combines them in a colour-coded diagram to decide which are major, moderate or minor in order to develop an appropriate risk response.

A likelihood scale is shown below.

 And an impact scale for injury at work in the next diagram.

In the corresponding risk matrix, a risk with a likelihood of 5 and impact of 5 would be classified as a major risk, while an impact of 3 and a likelihood of 3 would be moderate, and an impact of 3 and likelihood of 1 would be minor.

Other examples include:

• bow-tie analysis
• probability/consequence matrix
• decision tree analysis
• brainstorming
• Delphi technique
• structured what-if technique (SWIFT).

Sources:

The content on this page was primarily sourced from:

• IEC 31010:2019 Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques (6.3.5.4)

Edited July 28, 2019 by Nadine Cranenburgh

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